?Sunday 49ers @ Eagles/Bengals @ Chiefs *PRE/IN-GAME DISCUSSION THREAD*?

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hacheman@therx.com
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Two great games in store for us Sunday

May the wagering-odds be in your favor


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San Francisco at Philadelphia (-2½, 46½): The 49ers are on a 7-0 streak against the spread in the NFL playoffs. San Francisco also is on a 12-game winning streak straight up this season in which it has gone 10-2 ATS. The Niners also have covered six straight as underdogs. The Eagles were on an 0-4 spread skid prior to their blowout win and cover over the Giants in the divisional round. Philadelphia is on a 4-7 ATS slide overall. The Eagles have gone over in seven of their last 10 home games. The Niners are on a 6-2 over run. Edge: Niners and over.


Cincinnati at Kansas City (-1½, 48): This is their fourth meeting since January 2022. The Bengals won and covered the previous three as underdogs. Cincinnati also has won and covered four straight playoff games away from home. The Bengals are on an incredible 23-3 spread run. The Chiefs are on a 3-7 ATS slide at Arrowhead Stadium this season and are 5-9 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Cincinnati is on a 5-1 under uptick in the playoffs. Edge: Bengals and under.
 

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Pro bettors, handicappers give best bets for NFL title games​

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The Chiefs matched the biggest collapse in AFC championship history last year when they blew a 21-3 lead over the Bengals en route to a 27-24 overtime loss.

Kansas City, which has lost three straight games, all by three points, to Cincinnati, was a 7-point favorite in last year’s AFC title game.

The Chiefs are 1-point favorites over the Bengals in Sunday’s AFC championship rematch after the favorite flipped twice this week.

Kansas City opened as a 3-point favorite Sunday before the line swung 5½ points in favor of Cincinnati, which was -2½ on Tuesday. Then it swung 3½ points back in favor of Kansas City (-1), despite the fact that former NFL MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes will be at less than full strength after suffering a high ankle sprain in Saturday’s 27-20 win over the Jaguars.

Professional sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw and Review-Journal NFL Challenge champion Doug Fitz (58-32-2 ATS, 64.4 percent) still think the number is off and are backing the Chiefs as their best bet of Championship Sunday.

“Although Patrick Mahomes is playing on a bum ankle, this number is too much of an overreaction, and Kansas City still has the weapons on both sides of the ball,” said Fitz (Systemplays.com). “Kansas City wins straight-up.”

Whitelaw said he likes the Chiefs “quite a bit.”

“They should be a bigger favorite. Kansas City is the better team,” he said. “Mahomes will probably be 75 percent, give or take. They’ve overcompensated for the Mahomes injury. Obviously, he’s not going to be 100 percent. The spread would be like four if he was 100 percent. But however diminished he is, it isn’t worth that much.

“As long as he can play and be moderately effective, it’s an overcompensation. And the spread is a little lower because Cincinnati looked so good the previous week (in a 27-10 win at Buffalo).

“Basically, you’re just asking the home team to win the game. Cincinnati still has some linemen out, and it’s playing its second consecutive road game. Andy Reid is a pretty good coach in this spot.”

Fly like the Eagles

VSiN host Brent Musburger, who placed second in the RJ NFL Challenge this season with a 52-38 ATS mark (57.8 percent), made the Philadelphia Eagles (-2½) his best bet over the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC title game.


One reason is that a rookie quarterback has never started a Super Bowl, let alone won it.

“Brock Purdy has been amazing, but rookie quarterbacks don’t suit up on Super Sunday,” said Musburger (@brentmusburger). “If the Niners don’t score first, turn out the lights because the Purdy party is over. Fly, Eagles, Fly.”

Under armor

Unders went 4-0 in the divisional round, and pro sports bettor Erin Rynning expects the Niners-Eagles NFC championship game to go under (46½) as well.

“The Eagles flexed their offensive muscle in the early season with a multipronged attack keyed by Jalen Hurts’ ability and threat to run the football,” said Rynning (@Ersports1). “No question, this threat is now compromised, while the 49ers’ No. 1 defense awaits. It’s been exceedingly rare for the Eagles’ talented offense to face a defense that can match them. Meanwhile, this Eagles defense has stepped up to the plate as they shored up their run defense coexisting with an elite pass defense.

“Brock Purdy continues to deliver wins for the 49ers. However, the speed bumps build week by week, including more video for the opposition to game-plan for the rookie quarterback. Look for inefficiency from both offenses as the top-flight defenses control the game, sending it under the total.”

Possible Super Bowl lines

In potential Super Bowl matchups at the Westgate SuperBook, the Chiefs are -1½ over the Eagles and -1½ over the 49ers, while the Bengals are pick’em against the Eagles and 49ers.
 

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This is the day we've been waiting for.

Eagles -2.5
Bengals +1.5
 

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I might go Eagles ML.
Currently -148
 

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Brock Purdy emerged out of nowhere to become just the third rookie quarterback to win his first two postseason starts.
However, a bigger prize looms on the horizon when the San Francisco 49ers play in the NFC Championship Game for the third time in four seasons, visiting the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday.
Purdy will be striving to lead the second-seeded 49ers to their second Super Bowl in the past four seasons. His rise from the 262nd and last pick in the NFL draft to unbeaten in seven career starts is becoming legendary stuff. But his coolness and poise are what resonates with teammates.
"He doesn't care if he messes up," San Francisco receiver Deebo Samuel said. "If he does, he's going to go full speed and we'll talk about it at the end of the day.
"I have seen him grow throughout the whole year from zero snaps to being the starter of this team."
Injuries to Trey Lance (ankle) and Jimmy Garoppolo (foot) created an opportunity, and Purdy has cashed in with playoff wins over the Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys. Joe Flacco of the Baltimore Ravens in 2008-09 and Mark Sanchez of the New York Jets in 2009-10 are the other rookies to win their first two playoff starts.
Coach Nick Sirianni of the top-seeded Eagles is impressed with Purdy's rise and said his club studied the former Iowa State star during his college career.
"You do your homework on everybody," Sirianni said. "Then a guy that has won as many games and has as many records as he does, of course you're going to do your homework on him. He had a really good college tape for sure and he has a good pro tape. He's done a nice job since he's gotten in this league."
Philadelphia's defense, which ranked second in total defense (301.5 yards per game) in the regular season, will be the best Purdy has faced. Counting the postseason, the Eagles have racked up 75 sacks, third most in NFL history. The only two higher outputs came from the mid-1980s Chicago Bears, who had a record 82 in 1984 and 80 in 1985.
Eagles linebacker Haason Reddick (16 sacks), defensive ends Brandon Graham (11) and Josh Sweat (11) and defensive tackle Javon Hargrave (11) all established career highs for sacks. The defense also includes tackle Fletcher Cox (seven sacks) and safety C.J. Johnson-Gardner, who tied for the league lead with six interceptions.
Also part of the equation is the raucous Philadelphia crowd, which will provide noise.
"In these games, it all comes back to communication," Purdy said. "How can you operate smoothly, get in and out of the huddle, get the play off in the right way and make sure everybody is on the same page. It's definitely a big emphasis this week."
The Eagles feature NFL MVP finalist Jalen Hurts at quarterback, an elite runner who has turned into a strong thrower. Hurts passed for 22 touchdowns and rushed for 13 during the regular season.
Hurts threw for two scores and ran for one as Philadelphia routed the New York Giants 38-7 in the NFC divisional round.
Hurts expects a strong test from the 49ers, who led the NFL in total defense (300.6 yards per game) and scoring defense (16.3 points per game). San Francisco defensive end Nick Bosa (NFL-high 18.5 sacks) is a finalist for Defensive Player of the Year honors.
"They're really good across the board," Hurts said. "It starts out with their front seven and then adding a really good defensive back group. They fly to the ball at every position and they're well-coached. We have a task in front of us and a really big challenge."
The Eagles are in the NFC title game for the first time since the 2017-18 season when they went on to win the Super Bowl.
Philadelphia listed just two injured players as limited after Thursday's practice: offensive tackle Lane Johnson (groin) and cornerback Avonte Maddox (toe).
San Francisco's top two running backs -- Christian McCaffrey (calf) and Elijah Mitchell (groin) -- both missed practice the past two days. So did Garoppolo, who isn't expected to play.
Samuel and cornerback Ambry Thomas were both limited due to ankle injuries. Defensive end Charles Omenihu (oblique) also was limited after he was arrested on suspicion of misdemeanor domestic violence earlier this week.
San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan said Omenihu would play Sunday if healthy.
 

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49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
49ers are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
49ers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.
49ers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games on grass.
49ers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
49ers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
49ers are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games in January.
49ers are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 vs. NFC.
49ers are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games overall.

Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff games.
Eagles are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Eagles are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Eagles are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in January.

Under is 7-0 in 49ers last 7 playoff road games.
Over is 6-1 in 49ers last 7 games on grass.
Over is 5-1 in 49ers last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in 49ers last 6 playoff games.
Over is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 games overall.
Over is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 games following a straight up win.
Under is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 11-4 in 49ers last 15 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-2 in 49ers last 7 games following a ATS win.

Under is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 games on grass.
Over is 5-1 in Eagles last 6 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 games following a ATS win.
Over is 8-2 in Eagles last 10 games following a straight up win.
Over is 4-1-1 in Eagles last 6 Conference Championships games.
Under is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 vs. NFC.
Under is 12-3-1 in Eagles last 16 playoff home games.
Over is 6-2 in Eagles last 8 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 15-5-1 in Eagles last 21 playoff games.
Over is 11-4 in Eagles last 15 home games.
Under is 19-7-2 in Eagles last 28 games in January.
Over is 5-2 in Eagles last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Eagles last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-2 in Eagles last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 59-27 in Eagles last 86 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

Head to Head Trends
49ers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
Favorite is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
 

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Only one quarterback in the NFL has three consecutive wins against Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, and he'll have the striped orange helmet in the AFC championship game in Kansas City on Sunday night.
Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals (14-4) can return to the Super Bowl by eliminating Mahomes and the Chiefs (15-3) in the conference title game for the second year in a row.
"Last time we played him, he didn't make a mistake all game," Chiefs linebacker Nick Bolton said Wednesday of Burrow.
That last time was Dec. 4, a 27-24 win for the host Bengals that was near the middle of the team's current 10-game winning streak.
Cincinnati's most recent loss was to Cleveland on Halloween. Burrow would tie Russell Wilson for most wins (six) by a quarterback in their first three seasons if he can knock off the Chiefs again.
"He's got an edge to him," Bengals coach Zac Taylor said of Burrow. "I like that in our quarterback."
He hasn't been intercepted in his past three playoff games. In three starts against the Chiefs, Burrow has nine TDs (one rushing), one interception and a combined passer rating of 121.
"They know us, we know them," Chiefs coach Andy Reid said.
A takeaway on a fumble by Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce turned the game at Cincinnati at December in the fourth quarter, and kicker Harrison Butker missed a 55-yard field goal that would have sent the game into overtime.
Mahomes will start his fifth conference championship game. His overall playoff record is 9-3, and he has 32 touchdowns (28 TD passes, four rushing) and three interceptions in 10 career home playoff starts.
But Mahomes is dealing with a sprain of his upper right ankle. The initial sprain forced him out of the Chiefs' divisional playoff win over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. He returned to the game with limited mobility, completing 22 of 30 passes for a season-low 195 yards with two touchdowns and was not sacked.
Mahomes was a full practice participant Thursday and said how much progress he makes during the rest of the week will be key.
"We'll see as we get closer and closer and we'll see during the game," Mahomes said. "You can't fully do exactly what you're going to be in those moments in the game but all I can do is prepare myself the best way possible."
The expectation from the Chiefs is more shotgun formation and the max-protection looks Kansas City showed in the second half of the divisional playoffs.
If he's operating within a designed barricade in the pocket this week, the Chiefs know the drill. Even though Kansas City leads the NFL with pass attempts on the move, Mahomes also had an NFL-best 34 TD passes from the pocket (41 total TD passes).
"They're just a physical team. They play physical, from start to finish, all four quarters," Chiefs wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster said.
From Mahomes' view behind center, he said the challenge of solving the Bengals' defense is its ever-changing approach. In the AFC championship game last season, ends Sam Hubbard (two sacks and a forced fumble) and Trey Hendrickson (1.5 sacks) were unblockable at times.
To beat the Buffalo Bills last week, the Bengals used 10 designed cornerback blitzes, a look Mahomes said was rarely seen this season.
"They have no weakness," Mahomes said.
As for the Bengals offense, even with three starters on the offensive line out with injuries at Buffalo last week, Burrow was rarely pressured. Still, protection could be a problem for the Bengals if left tackle Jonah Williams (knee) and right guard Alex Cappa (ankle) are out again. Neither practiced Wednesday or Thursday. Right tackle La'el Collins (knee) is done for the season.
In addition, tight end Hayden Hurst (calf) was added to Cincinnati's injury report Thursday.
Taylor pointed out that the Bengals leaned on running back Joe Mixon heavily against Buffalo (105 rushing yards) to get their replacement linemen comfortable. That approach also has worked against the Chiefs: Kansas City runs nickel or dime base defense more than only four other teams in 2022.
"We can't let Joe Burrow sit in the pocket and get rhythm throws. We have to force him out of the pocket," Chiefs safety Justin Reid said. "We're not gonna win the game if we don't get sacks or turnovers."
Wide receiver Mecole Hardman (pelvis) returned to practice -- he had been limited the past two days -- but Reid said the Chiefs will continue to monitor him closely. Hardman didn't play against the Jaguars and has been sidelined since Nov. 6.
The Chiefs aren't expecting running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle) to be activated from injured reserve though Reid allowed there was a chance. He has missed the past eight games.
If Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo shifts gears from a tendency to rush four, Burrow's options in the passing game are led by wide receivers Ja'Marr Chase (513 career postseason receiving yards) and Tee Higgins (103 yards in last year's AFC championship game).
Andy Reid is seeking his third Super Bowl appearance in four seasons and could find his former employer, the Philadelphia Eagles, on the other sideline in Arizona on Feb. 12. A Bengals' win on Sunday would make Taylor the third head coach in NFL history to appear in two Super Bowls in his first four seasons.
 

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Bengals are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bengals are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
Bengals are 13-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Bengals are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in January.
Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Bengals are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
Bengals are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win.
Bengals are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. AFC.
Bengals are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Bengals are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Bengals are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win.
Bengals are 37-17 ATS in their last 54 road games.
Bengals are 36-17-1 ATS in their last 54 games overall.

Chiefs are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Chiefs are 9-24-1 ATS in their last 34 vs. AFC.
Chiefs are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Chiefs are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win.
Chiefs are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Chiefs are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Under is 5-0 in Bengals last 5 playoff road games.
Under is 9-1 in Bengals last 10 playoff games.
Over is 7-1-1 in Bengals last 9 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Over is 5-1 in Bengals last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 13-3-1 in Bengals last 17 vs. AFC.
Under is 12-3 in Bengals last 15 games in January.
Under is 8-2 in Bengals last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 26-10-3 in Bengals last 39 road games.
Under is 15-6 in Bengals last 21 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 12-5-1 in Bengals last 18 games following a ATS win.
Under is 12-5-1 in Bengals last 18 games following a straight up win.
Under is 34-15-4 in Bengals last 53 games on grass.
Under is 43-19-2 in Bengals last 64 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 15-7-1 in Bengals last 23 games overall.

Under is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 home games.
Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 6-2 in Chiefs last 8 games on grass.
Under is 8-3 in Chiefs last 11 games following a straight up win.
Over is 5-2 in Chiefs last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Chiefs last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 10-4 in Chiefs last 14 games in January.

Head to Head Trends
Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.
Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Kansas City.
 

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Fantastic rebound as the Worm goes perfect during Div Wk. Purdy showed some of his rookie color missing a bunch of open receivers throughout the gm, scoring 0 TDs w/a 65% comp rate, & leading only 2 long FGs off Dak’s 2 INTs. McCaffrey, Mitchell & Kittle picked up the slack to score enough to cover the #, in a gm a lot of pro’s were going w/DAL. Thank goodness for Dak & McCarthy’s ineptitude. Tony Pollard getting hurt was a big deal too. Got lucky w/JAX as the score dictated a FG was the way to go against KC, & CIN was a breeze dog @ BUF. BIG surprise as a 3 Unit Teaser actually hit this yr!! Would’ve been a no-sweater if naught for NYG not able to score until the 3rd Q.

Playoff POW 1-1, Teasers 2-0, Overall 7-2

CIN +1 ½
are on a 10-gm win streak, 2 of them PO wins. They’re easily the hottest team in the AFC & now head to KC w/a 3-gm win streak on the line in this budding rivalry. It’s actually not a surprise that CIN has owned this matchup recently despite KC having the experience advantage. CIN’s “D” attacks @ KC’s weaknesses, starting w/the oline. Hubbard & Hendrickson are beasts on the edges & that’s where the pressure normally comes on Mahomes. The matchup on the rt side is most problematic & KC will have to help RT Wylie against Hubbard. Now w/a bad ankle, Mahomes’ mobility & plant leg creates an even worse matchup. Kelce has had some success against this CIN “D”, but they’re still overall 3rd best against TEs. CIN’s secondary is also very good, & now they don’t have to plan against Tyreek, as evidenced in their last gm in Wk 13, where aside from a long reception by MVS, KC’s receivers were held in check. That gm CIN was also w/out Hendrickson. CIN will have a tuff time against the run, as KC ran for 155, 139, 138 yds in the last 3 tilts. The focus on taking away Kelce & Mahomes has been a successful strategy so far. The true disadvantage comes w/CIN’s “O”. They racked up 475, 359 & 431 yds in the series, led by Burrow & his talented receiving corp. Chase, Higgins & Boyd are great as it is, but TE Hurst, RBs Perine & Mixon, & 4th WR Irwin (4 TDs) are utilized in the passing gm as well. KC’s secondary isn’t bad, led by McDuffie & Justin Reid, but they have a tuff time against this group. KC’s strength on “D” is obviously on the line, where All-Pro Chris Jones & Frank Clark helped KC lead the league in sacks. However CIN doesn’t flinch as they mixed short throws w/the run gm to help stave off this fearsome dline, & throw for over 350 yds each time. CIN also owns the advantage on STs as McPherson has a higher FG % (82.8) than Butker (75), & KC is one of the worse kick return coverage units, & CIN’s Trayveon Williams avg 22 ypr in his last 5 gms. Mahomes can have some head-scratching decision making in a lot of gms while Andy Reid can also make critical mistakes that cost the team. Amazing to say, but KC could be pressing here while CIN will be playing loose w/their uber-confident QB. Burrow is also 8-0 SU in gms w/40 degrees or lower temps, & Arrowhead will be in the low 20’s. I feel Burrow establishes his new role as best QB in the league w/this statement win & gets his team to another SB.

CIN 24
KC 20
7 Units


GL to all & comments are most welcome. NFL coming to an end! Enjoy it while you can!
 

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Is Mahomes actually going to be able to finish this game?

This could easily be a series or 2 or maybe a quarter and he is pulled.

Have to like Bengals here as a slight dog.
 

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Mahomes never a playoff Underdog (12 games)
 

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When the game kicks off at 6:30 p.m. ET (5:30 p.m. local time), it will be around 23 degrees Fahrenheit. It will start getting slightly colder when the sun sets shortly after kickoff, but only by a few degrees. Temperatures are expected to hover around 20 degrees, dipping into the high teens in the later in the game.
No snow is expected, so the playing surface at Arrowhead Stadium should be clean and dry throughout the evening.
It should be noted that Saturday's high is 53 degrees Fahrenheit before dropping to 17 degrees overnight. That's quite a drop in temperature for just one day.
 

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It should be noted that Saturday's high is 53 degrees Fahrenheit before dropping to 17 degrees overnight. That's quite a drop in temperature for just one day.
Yeah it’s pleasant here right now. Good playing conditions, little breezy .Dramatic shift tonight though
 

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